Abstract:
Tea yield plays an important role in Sri Lanka's economy, contributing significantly
to employment, foreign exchange earnings, and GDP. The study aims to develop a
model for forecasting the cost of tea production, yield, and export volumes to make
informed decisions for policymakers, producers, and investors. This study employs a
quantitative research approach, utilizing statistical analysis models to predict the
forecast values. Mainly, this study was oriented with secondary data; therefore, all data
were collected from Department of Census Statistics, Sri Lanka Custom Headquarters
annual reports, Sri Lanka Tea Board annual reports, and Forbes & Walker tea brokers
annual statistical reports. The ARIMA analysis was conducted on the RStudio
programming application. A stationary test was conducted to confirm the stationary
level and trend through hypothesis acceptance. After that, autocorrelation and partial
autocorrelation test, residual test and finally fit the model and fufure values were
predicted. Regarding the analysis, the yield-predicted values show nominal
fluctuations and export quantities, and the cost of tea production (Rs. per kg) shows
no any fluctuations in forecasted values. Due to the circumstances fitted model gives
95.93 yo, 95.11 yo, and 96.19 Yo accuracy value for tea yield quantity, cost of tea
production, and export volume, respectively. Regarding the analysis, the government
needs to sort out some factors' effects (tea quality, weather patterns, etc) and give more
consideration to the tea exports to earn foreign exchange and gain more global demand
for future periods. This study suggests that targeted to improve positive GDP
difference through tea leld in the future, and this results from more impact for the tea
workers and their wage improvement and introduces the new technologies for tea yield
and processing in future Sri Lanka tea yield trend.
